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Ministry of External Affairs Library
AFGHANISTAN India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs 71(1), March,2015: 16-36 With the end of Cold War the relative dominance of the military–political notion of security plummeted reflecting the widespread recognition of the sources of security being diversified away from the centre stage, that is, the state. In recent years what have catapulted into the centre stage of both policy and strategic thinking are the environmental apocalypse, poverty, economic decline and other social crisis of identity, drug and human trafficking and politics of racism, minority, human rights and feminist indignation and population age structure brushing aside the political–military construct of security hovered around state and its apparatus to the fringe. Out of all these non-traditional security threats population age structure stands preeminent in view of its impact on stability and liberal democratic character of a state. The very word people is no longer a homogenous term. If the number of youths of a particular age group surpasses the other age groups in a nation it has serious implications on its security, and political stability. This is termed as ‘youth bulge’ which can turn into violence and civil war in case of failure of the state in providing them jobs, education and economic sustenance. This article explains how youth bulge in Afghanistan can greatly affect its transition to liberal democracy in the context of American withdrawal from Afghanistan and failure of the government to address the socio-economic challenges the people face in the society. When state fails as a constitutional and institutional device to meet all these challenges, slipping into the hands of Taliban which provides better economic prospects can become a fait accompli. Then the devil is easily identified in the demography. The stranglehold of America on Taliban seems to be waning with its decision to withdraw and involvement of Taliban in the peace talk. This will aggravate the situation further in Afghanistan as its youth bulge is very much disenchanted with the existing socio-economic landscape casting a shadow over its stability and transition to democracy. ***1. Afghanistan-Liberal democracy 2. Afghanistan-Youth insurgency ASIA International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 15(2), May, 2015: 16-36 This paper seeks to enrich understandings of middle-power security strategies by examining countries that lack great-power capabilities but still aim to influence the regional security environment. Based on a literature review highlighting the functional and behavioral approaches of middle power diplomacy, we note that these elements could also apply to their regional security strategies. The paper focuses on regional security strategy as a subset of foreign policy and asks why some middle powers appear to go for a regional security strategy that is more functional while others adopt a strategy that is more behavioral. It argues that this divergence derives primarily from differences in resource availability and strategic environment. An analysis of Indonesia, South Korea, Australia and Vietnam highlights how each of these middle powers has adopted a particular regional security strategy, driven by their resource availability and strategic environment. ***1. Asia-Pacific-security strategy 2. Middle Power-Security strategy 3. Middle Power-Foreign policy BELARUS Europe-Asia Studies 67(3), May,2015: 468-492 This article offers a contribution to the comparative democratisation literature by analysing the use of non-violent methods of resistance in a repressive political regime. It focuses on the role of youth movements in elections in Belarus. Elections present an opportunity for the engagement of youth in politics. The study examines how the youth movements Malady Front, Zubr and Belarusian Patriotic Youth Union sought to mobilise young people during the 2001 election. It analyses movement tactics and state action in response to youth mobilisation. ***1. Belarus-Politics and government 2. Belarus-Elections International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 15(2), May, 2015 There is always a time gap between the decision for war and its implementation. I exploit this time gap to study how the signaling of resolve changes after the decision for war is made, based on the wars that China fought since 1949. I study the series of signals that China sent after it had made its decisions for war in Korea (1950), India (1962) and Vietnam (1979), and compare them with the signals sent just before the decisions were made. I find patterns in Chinese prewar signaling that reflect how strategic incentives for the signaling of resolve change before and after the decision for war. The study generates theoretical expectations on discontinuities in signaling behavior upon the decision for war – an unexplored research area with direct policy implications. ***1. China-Decision for war 2. Indo-China war 1962 3. China-Korea war 1950 4. China-Vietnam war 1978 42162 International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 15(2), May, 2015: 319-365 Why does Ma Ying-jeou pursue a China-tilting policy when US–PRC relations become more competitive after 2010? Indeed, the president's mainland policy has gone far beyond the strategic requirements to satisfy international pressures for a stable cross-strait relationship. According to neoclassical realism, domestic politics acts as ‘intervening variables’ through which systemic imperatives are translated into a state's foreign policy response. Based, in part, on this author's interviews in Taiwan, this paper contends that due to Taiwan's internal political divisions on the ‘one China’ issue, elected leaders strive for their own nation-building projects, which, in turn, generate policies that undermine Taiwan's national security. Since 2008, the KMT tries to reshape Taiwan's identity through the rehabilitation of the ROC as the legitimate ‘one China’. Though Ma's rapprochement with Beijing on the basis of the ‘1992 consensus’ has contributed to cross-strait stability, his embrace of a China-centric national identity has also placed the administration increasingly at odds with Taiwan's public which gave the KMT a resounding electoral defeat in Taiwan's local elections of November 2014. As Taipei becomes more aligned to the PRC, its security ties with America and Japan could be compromised. ***1. China-Domestic divisions 2. China-Foreign relations-USA 3. Taiwan-Mainland policy 4. One China policy 5. Taiwan-Foreign relations-USA -ECONOMIC POLICY-MIDDLE EAST China Report 51 (2), May, 2015: 102-120 This study presents the strategic hedging framework as a way to trace the determinants of the foreign policies of hedging states. We use the case of Chinese energy security strategy in the Middle East as an illustrative case study. It first uses four criteria to establish that China’s energy security strategy in the Middle East is a strong example of strategic hedging behaviour. Then it examines the impact of oil production in the Middle East countries on the growth of Chinese economic relationships with these countries. The results of this study show clearly that oil production plays an important role in the Sino-Middle East relations. We find a positive relationship between oil production in Middle East countries, on the one hand, and the distribution and growth of China’s trade and investment with these countries, on the other hand. These results confirm that strategic hedging behaviour leads to developing China’s economic relations with the oil-producing countries in order to cover its growing needs for energy to support its economic growth. This article represents the first attempt to trace the impact of strategic hedging behaviour on the foreign policies of hedging states. Thus, it contributes to the support of the strategic hedging framework as a new theory in international relations. ***1. China-Economic policy-Middle East International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 15(2), May, 2015: 245-278 Despite extensive economic ties and political engagement throughout Asia and sizable investment in some of the region's most vulnerable regimes, China has yet to develop a stable of devoted client states. This article argues that both strategic and normative factors militate against China's cultivation of strong patron–client pacts. The article then uses the case of Cambodia to illustrate these arguments, analyzing how that partnership has developed and its important limitations. ***1. China-Economic relations-Cambodia 2. China-Foreign policy-Cambodia 3. China-Political support-Cambodia Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs 59(1), Winter, 2015: 49-61 Many experts raise concerns about the “rise of China” and the potential threat it presents to American interests. Indeed, the recent strategic pivot announced by U.S. leaders is designed to address these concerns. Yet what we are likely to see is not a rise of Chinese power, but a surge-a temporary situation of perhaps twenty to thirty years. Demographic, economic, and political factors will all combine to create a ceiling on Chinese power and ultimately cause it to decline. The United States needs to develop military capabilities that will prepare it for the coming strategic window, along with the economic and political initiatives that will enable it to influence events in the region. ***1. China-Economy 2. China-Military capabilities 3. USA-Defence policy-East Asia 9. Cui, Yuming China Economic Journal 8 (1), 2015: 1-17 This paper reviews the process of exchange rate regime reform of three economies: Japan, Korea and Taiwan, with emphasis on background, policies applied, and corresponding consequence in different periods. Lessons drawn from the experiences of these three economies are important and valuable for China’s ongoing exchange rate regime reform, although some could argue that China today is different from the three countries then. We argue that the Gradualism approach is the optimal option for RMB revaluation rather than the One-off approach. Follow-up monetary and fiscal policies are needed to maintain export and economic growth when the currency is being revaluated, but the timing and scale of policies are equally important. China’s exchange rate regime reform should be regarded as an integral component of a broad financial system reform rather than considered alone. In addition, an integrated financial market reform is a pre-condition for achieving smooth exchange rate regime reform. Last but not least, the policies for long-term economic structure adjustment and industry upgrading need to be prepared by China’s authority in order to respond to the possible adverse impact of RMB exchange rate region reform on its economy. ***1. China-Economy 2. China-Exchange rate regime 3. Taiwan-Exchange rate regime 4. Japan-Exchange rate regime 5. Korea-Exchange rate regime China Economic Journal 8 (1), 2015: 40-54 The paper is intended to provide a comprehensive explanation of China’s external imbalances, which are characterized by current account surplus and financial account surplus. The thrust of the paper is that China’s current account surplus is not simply an effect of the savings gap. Rather, it is a result of complicated interactions among various factors in a dynamic fashion. Hence, to keep the current account surplus-to-GDP ratio at a rational level, the implementation of comprehensive policies that address all relevant factors at the same time as well as fundamental restructuring are necessary. ***1. China-Economy 2. China-Current account surplus 3. China-Export promotion Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs 59(1), Winter, 2015: 62-75 This article contends that as Japan weakens relative to China it must think creatively about blunting key components of China's military strategy, particularly in the maritime domain. To advance this argument, this study samples recent Japanese threat perceptions of China; assesses the growing Sino-Japanese military imbalance; illustrates some asymmetric responses that may help Japan exploit its geographic advantages while competing more effectively; and identifies the risks to the proposed countermoves against China's challenge. The bottom line is that if Japan hopes to stay in the game, it must employ its military power imaginatively, making the Asian seas and airspace less and less hospitable to Chinese forces as they turn seaward. ***1. China-Military strategy-Japan 2. China-Military imbalance-Japan 3. China-Anti access strategy-Japan China Report 51(2), May,2015: 129-143 This article examines the initiatives taken by the government of the People’s Republic of China towards ensuring government information transparency. The Open Government Information Regulations (OGI) which was adopted in 2007 is a landmark in the transparency reforms process in China. The analysis of this initiative and further reforms becomes vital as China has witnessed newly emerged emphasis on anti-corruption campaign and rule of law. Though these regulations were adopted in 2007 at national level, many reforms have been introduced in these regulations in terms of annual guidelines from time to time. This article analyses the origin and development of OGI; the scope of these regulations; the legal, political and structural problems obstructing the successful implementation of these regulations; and further reforms towards making China more open and transparent. This work also provides a comparative analysis of information disclosure initiatives in China and India. ***1. China-Open government information regulations 2. China-Government iInformation transparency Terrorism and Political Violence 27(1), January-March,2015: 9-28 This article assesses the applicability of subcultural theories to individual cases of jihadi and Right-wing radicalization in Germany, with a focus on the individual initial situation and motivation for involvement. Within an overall qualitative research design, the article tests deviance/strain and Centre for Contemporary Cultural Studies (CCCS) subcultural theories against four jihadi and three Right-wing extremist cases. The findings show little support for the strain-based status frustration hypothesis, but confirm the illegitimate opportunity structure thesis; modified versions of the CCCS’ resistance, bricolage, and homology concepts; as well as some of the postmodern approaches to agency and cultural cross-fertilization. The jihadi and Right-wing radicals examined here are assertive and purposive agents, strategically using the rich cultural arsenal available in the mainstream and/or other subcultures, while at the same time being themselves influenced by contemporary mainstream preferences of style. The article discusses the implications of these findings for radicalization research and specific subcultural approaches. It argues for a greater focus on both individual agency and the (sub-)cultural context for an improved understanding of individual involvement in political violence. ***1. Germany-Terrorism 2. Germany-Jihadism World Politics 67(1), January 2015: 114-154 ***1. Immigration policy 2. Cross national immigration policy 3. Trade policy Journal of Asian Studies 74(1), February, 2015: 85-105 Since independence, India has had electoral quotas for Scheduled Castes (SCs, Dalits, “untouchables”). These quotas have been praised for empowering members of a deprived community, but have also been criticized for bringing to power SC politicians who are mere tools in the hands of the upper castes. Tracing the history of these quotas through four critical junctures, I show how a British attempt to strengthen their own control of India eventually resulted in one of the world's most extensive quota systems for minorities. The quota system was in the end a compromise between several political goals, and was not strongly supported by anyone. Also, while the quotas were designed to integrate SC politicians into mainstream politics, there was a subtle and gradual shift in the debate about them, to being about development for the SC community as such. This created a disjuncture between the design of the quota system and the expectation of what it would achieve. The case of quotas in India illustrates how policy choices often result from long path-dependent processes, how policy makers struggle with trade-offs when trying to design institutions, and also the power of expectations in shaping the perceptions of the outcomes of those institutions. ***1. India-Elections 2. India-Electoral Quotas 3. The Poona pact 4. Morle-Minto reforms India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs 71(1), March,2015: 37-52 While focusing on the ‘third neighbour’ approach of Mongolia’s diplomacy of external relations, this article seeks to examine the effects of this new approach on India–Mongolia relations. It delves into the evolution of Mongolia’s ‘third neighbour’ policy and its implementation into forging a mutually beneficial cooperation in diverse areas with such ‘third neighbour’ nations or a group of nations that could help balance Mongolia’s two geographic neighbours—Russia and China. The article argues that such third neighbours have been identified to bolster Mongolia’s development, invest, and encourage the democratic transition/consolidation that is under way. In the case of India, ever since it began to be considered as one of Mongolia’s third neighbours, their relationship has witnessed a sea change, that is, the bilateral relations turned into a comprehensive partnership. Contrary to the ordinary viewpoint, the argument here is that India remains an important country for Mongolia in both regional and international contexts, particularly in the context of India’s role in promoting a multi-polar security structure in Asia. The Mongolians concede India’s positive influence on them and desire that the strong cultural relationship based on Buddhist traditions between the two sides should be translated into a strategic partnership. This is more so because Mongolia’s proximity with India appears to be a significant factor to balance off the equation with China. ***1. India-Foreign relations-Mongolia 2. India-Uranium diplomacy-Mongolia 3. India-Third neighbour policy-Mongolia Journal of Asian Studies 74(1), February, 2015: 23-41 More than sixty-five years after the partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947, controversy about partition, its causes and its effects, continues. Yet the emphases in these debates have changed over the years, and it is perhaps time, in the wake of India's recent elections, to take stock once again of how these debates have developed in the last several decades and where they are heading. What gives these controversies particular significance is that they are not just about that singular event, but about the whole trajectory of India's modern history, as interpreted through partition's lens-engaging academic historians, even as they continue to be deeply enmeshed in ongoing political conflict in South Asia, and, indeed, in the world more broadly. ***1. India-History of partition 2. India-Civilization 3. India-Cause of partition 4. India-Modernity International Relations 29(1), March,2015: 45-68 Political coalitions in the international system are still understudied in International Relations theory. This article claims that the formation of and variations in coalitions in the international system are affected by changes in their bargaining power and bargaining environment related to the global leadership cycle and by long-term organisational changes of the international political system. Identifying the Security Council as the institution in which states are more likely to keep their systemic preferences at the institutional level, the article studies the presence, formation and change of coalitions in the international system by testing variations in the behaviour of the Security Council members in the period 1993–2012. To overcome methodological difficulties, it proposes to analyse sponsoring rather than voting behaviour. In the analysed period, the presence of a mutating dominant coalition, signs of potential coalitions in the making and an increase in participation and competition resulting from modifications in the organisational form of the international system are found. ***1. International Organization-United Nations 2. UN Security council 3. International Politics-Coalitions Comparative Political Studies 48(5), April,2015: 586-615 This paper examines unemployment benefit reforms in twenty-five advanced democracies between the middle of the 1980s and the onset of the Great Recession in 2008. The paper’s main argument is that the type of government – coalition or single-party – has an effect on whether cutbacks in social benefits are combined with compensating measures that mitigate the negative effects of the cuts. We show empirically that when cuts in unemployment benefit duration were made by coalition governments, spending on training programs tended to increase, but when cuts in duration were made by single-party governments, training spending tended to decrease. This pattern suggests that coalition governments, but not single-party governments, use compensation mechanisms to build political support for labor market reforms. ***1. International Politics-Coalitions Government 2. Labor Market reform World Politics 67(2), April 2015: 226-267 Why does natural resource wealth prolong incumbency? Using evidence from parliamentary elections in the Islamic Republic of Iran, the author shows that natural resource revenues boost incumbent reelection rates because they are used to provide public or private goods to constituents, which incentivizes voters to reelect incumbents over challengers. To test this hypothesis, the author employs originally assembled data on five parliamentary elections in Iran (1992–2008) in longitudinal hierarchical regression analyses at the district and province levels. By leveraging Iran's mixed-member electoral system, he shows that the resource-incumbency mechanism works primarily in single-member districts with little evidence of an incumbency advantage for politicians in resource-rich multimember districts. Building on the rentier theory of natural resource wealth, the results suggest that voting for the incumbent is attributable to patronage and public goods distribution. The findings offer new insights into the understudied context of Iranian legislative elections, illustrate the mechanisms driving the relationship between resource wealth and incumbency advantage at the subnational level in a nondemocratic setting, and highlight the mediating effects of electoral institutions on the resource-incumbency relationship. ***1. Iran-Politics and government 2. Iran-Parliamentary election 1992-2008 Terrorism and Political Violence 27(1), January-March,2015: 112-132 The Iraqi Insurgency (2003–2011) has commonly been characterized as demonstrating the tendency for violence to cluster and diffuse at the local level. Recent research has demonstrated that insurgent attacks in Iraq cluster in time and space in a manner similar to that observed for the spread of a disease. The current study employs a variety of approaches common to the scientific study of criminal activities to advance our understanding of the correlates of observed patterns of the incidence and contagion of insurgent attacks. We hypothesize that the precise patterns will vary from one place to another, but that more attacks will occur in areas that are heavily populated, where coalition forces are active, and along road networks. To test these hypotheses, we use a fishnet to build a geographical model of Baghdad that disaggregates the city into more than 3000 grid cell locations. A number of logistic regression models with spatial and temporal lags are employed to explore patterns of local escalation and diffusion. These models demonstrate the validity of arguments under each of three models but suggest, overall, that risk heterogeneity arguments provide the most compelling and consistent account of the location of insurgency. In particular, the results demonstrate that violence is most likely at locations with greater population levels, higher density of roads, and military garrisons. ***1. Iraq-Insurgency 2. Iraq-Risk heterogeneity Journal of Conflict Resolution 59(3), April, 2015: 401-427 ***1. Ireland-Terrorism 2. Northern Ireland conflict 3. Provisional Irish Republican Army China Report 51(2), May, 2015: 87-101 For long, the study of Japanese economic history of the prewar period has been colored by the dominant view of the modernisation economists who clearly held an anti-Marxist or a non-Marxist approach. One casualty of this approach has been the neglect of the rich micro level studies and data that are available on this period in the Japanese language. The standard view of agricultural development in Japan tends to ignore or gloss over the various struggles and difficulties the poor peasant went through. This article highlights the availability of diaries and other records left by the poor or the tenant farmers of the Meiji and Taisho periods. It shows how a study of these, along with the macro picture presented by the modernisation economists, completes the canvas and brings one closer to the realities of the prewar period. It raises questions about the image of a smooth and painless transition to modernisation that has been holding centre stage in the discourse about Japan for so long. ***1. Japan-Economic history 2. Japan-Agriculture development International Relations of the Asia-pacific 15(2), May, 2015: 217-244 Conventional wisdom is that trade policy is often guided by geopolitical security considerations. A growing body of research addresses the security–trade linkage as a plausible cause for executive negotiations over the Korea–US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) in 2007. Yet, the approval of a trade deal with the Asian ally by America's legislature in 2011 features not only ‘security ties’ but also ‘electoral connections’. This paper seeks to examine the question of whether alliance relationships would inevitably translate into domestic commitments. Bringing domestic politics into consideration, this article also fills the gap in the literature on Congress-focused research of the KORUS FTA and sheds light on how lawmakers strike a balance between the principle of US foreign policy and the reality of conflicting domestic interests. ***1. Korea-Free trade agreement-USA 2. Korea-Foreign policy-USA 3. KORUS FTA International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 15(2), May, 2015: 367-396 The Korean government's engagement in FTAs since the late 1990s has been enthusiastic. As of 2012, the Korean government concluded FTAs with small trading partners such as Chile, Singapore, EFTA, ASEAN, India, Peru, and Turkey, and major counterparts such as the European Union (EU) and the United States as well. However, the degree of each of the Korean administrations' engagement in FTAs has shown discernible differences: While the Kim Dae-jung administration passively engaged in FTAs, the Roh Moo-hyun administration was proactive in that engagement. What explains the shift from the Kim administration's passive FTA policy to the Roh administration's comprehensive multi-track FTA policy? This article argues that the appreciation of the Korean won since 2001 made Korean exporters lose their price competitiveness in the global market, thereby forcing the Roh administration to offset Korean exporters' lost price competitiveness by formulating a comprehensive multi-track FTA policy, with huge side payments for politically sensitive import-competing sectors. ***1. Korea-FTA policy 2. India-Free trade agreement-Korea 3. Korea-Free trade agreement-East Asia Europe-Asia Studies 67(3), May,2015: 370-387 Using the Bourdieusian framework to analyse the nature of social stratification in rural Kyrgyzstan, this article examines how local politics is strategised by different groups in the social field. The article suggests two modifications to the Bourdieusian framework to reflect better the nature of local politics. First, despite lacking significant capital holdings, poor groups undertake everyday resistance and mediated politics. Second, intellectual and traditional elites engage in the politics of ‘doing the right thing’, motivated by a sense of moral obligation. The article provides a critical challenge to the concept of clan and elite-led politics which is often used to explain events in Central Asia. ***1. Kyrgyzstan-Politics and government World Politics 67(1), January 2015: 1-36 A credible opposition is necessary for democratic accountability. However, in a multiparty democracy, a credible opposition may fail to emerge when it is in the strategic interest of political parties to collude rather than compete, effectively extinguishing all credible opposition. The author argues that illicit collusion among parties on a representative council is more likely when all viable parties win seats and are thus able to enter into a self-binding commitment to jointly engage in misconduct without risk of exposure. Conversely, when at least one party fails to win representation on the council, there is a credible opposition with the incentive and ability to threaten exposure of rent seeking among council members. The theory is tested using a regression discontinuity design where the electoral threshold to win a single seat is, within a narrow band, an exogenous determinant of whether or not there is an out-party or credible opposition. Exploiting the fact that Mali's decentralization produces within-country variation in both electoral and governance outcomes, the author uses data from commune council elections alongside local-level public goods provision as a measure of rent seeking. Poorer public goods provision is indeed more likely when all political parties in a district win seats on the council. To show that collusion is the mechanism driving this relationship, the author tests several observable implications in the data and uses qualitative evidence as illustration. This examination of when it is in the strategic interest of parties to engage in uncompetitive behavior contributes to the literature on when elections fail to produce democratic accountability. ***1. Mali-Politics and government 2. Mali-Democracy 3. Mali-Political parties Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs 59(1), Winter 2015: 35-48 More than three after the beginning of the Arab Awakening, it appears that the upheavals have, by and large, left the Gulf monarchies intact. While several dictators have fallen— from Ben Ali in Tunisia, Mubarak in Egypt and Gaddafi in Libya to Saleh in Yemen— monarchies across the region have shown considerable survival skills. But is this purported resilience likely to last even as the Arab Awakening continues to shake the Middle East and North African (MENA) region, or are the monarchs next in line now that the “presidents for life” have met their demise? This article explores the various ways in which Gulf monarchies have experienced political and social mobilizations associated with the Arab Awakening and then analyzes the characteristics that have allowed these countries to weather the storm, focusing on both pre-existing structural and cultural factors, as well as political responses to the unfolding regional protests. ***1. Middle East-Gulf monarchies 2. Middle East-political and social mobilizations Europe-Asia Studies 67(3), May,2015: 443-467 The article analyses the exceptionalism of housing during the early communist period in Romania, in particular the extent to which the regime's ambivalent policies regarding housing undermined the overall political and ideological goal of dismantling private property. Focusing on appropriations, restitutions and new construction in the city of Timi¸oara and the surrounding region, the article emphasises conflicting and inconsistent policies regarding housing and the consequences of these policies. Housing's double meaning as home and asset further complicated the overall ideological mission of denaturalising bourgeois private property, and provided a basis for the continuing relevance of pre-communist legal ideologies and consciousness of property rights during this period. The article is based on documentary and archival research conducted in the city of Timi¸oara, Romania, in 2007–2008. ***1. Romania-Politics and government 2. Romania-Private property Europe-Asia Studies 67(3), May,2015: 345-369 ***1. Russia-Domestic gas market 2. Russia-Gas industry World Politics 67(2), April 2015: 268-312 How do military ideas, and military doctrines in particular, spread through the international system? This article extends extant work on military diffusion by exploring why some states, after deciding to adopt another's innovative warfighting system, fail to implement it. The author argues that for states to successfully implement a military doctrine developed abroad, much information about the unobservable aspects of the warfighting system is needed. States vary in their capacity to acquire the necessary knowledge because they face differing levels of resistance to military diffusion within their armed forces. Powerful groups within the military that are opposed to such adoptions are likely to use their influence to press for policies and bureaucratic maneuvers that constrain information flows between innovating states and their own state and consequently inhibit implementation and diffusion of military doctrines. Therefore successful implementation of foreign military doctrines can be expected when states face minimal resistance within their militaries, and moderated or failed implementation can be expected when opposition is more significant. A provisional test of the argument is conducted through an assessment of Argentina, Brazil, and Chile's attempts to implement the German military doctrine at the turn of the twentieth century. ***1. South America-Politics and government 2. South America-German military doctrine 3. South America-Military bureaucratic politics Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(5), May 2015: 359-379 he aim of this article is to analyze how and why Swedish counterterrorism policy has changed since 2001. It raises the issue of how counterterrorism interacts with other factors on the governmental agenda, which priorities are made, and how these can be understood. Although much empirical evidence on the real political influence of emergent interagency networks is still lacking in the case of Sweden, an attempt is made here to analyze the importance of focusing events. In the light of the Swedish national strategy for counterterrorism, the article analyzes the content of annual reports from the Swedish Security Service. The article also explores linkages between the counterterrorism and crisis management literatures, and argues that the reassuring overtones in Swedish counterterrorism policy of late can be understood not only as the result of changes in threat perception and policy, but also in institutionalchange. ***1. Sweden-war against terrorism 2. Sweden-Counter-terrorism policy 3. Swedish Security Service Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(1), January,2015: 1-22 ***1. Syria-Terrorism 2. Syria-Jihad 3. Syria-Western foreign fighters 4. Iraq-Western foreign fighters 5. Social media-jihad Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(5), May 2015: 343-358 Modern jihadism has experienced two distinct crises. The present study analyzes recent developments in jihadism, which can be seen in connection with efforts to solve the latest recruitment crisis of global jihad, and is based on comparative interviews with eight Swedish jihadists defined as foreign fighters. The study identifies three new trends evident in the interviews comparing jihadists active in Syria with those who fought in Afghanistan and Bosnia: socialization to global jihad, normalization of jihad, and an increasing use of the doctrine of takfir (i.e., ex-communication). This can be described as indicating the radicalization of local jihad, as the territorially based jihad, championed by Abdullah Azzam, and the global jihad of Osama bin Laden meet in the territorial realities of Syria and Iraq. ***1. Syria-Terrorism 2. Iraq-Terrorism 3. Syria-Swedish jihadists 4. Iraq-Swedish jihadists Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(2), February,2015: 113-131 Jihadist foreign fighters have become common in civil conflicts in Muslim countries. While research exists on the impact they have upon returning home, less attention has been given to their influence on the opposition cause that they mobilize in support of. This article looks at the impact that jihadist foreign fighters on the Chechen and Syrian resistance causes, evaluating their influence on oppositional cohesion and ideology, domestic and international perceptions of the movements, and on governmental narratives regarding the conflicts the foreign fighters engage in. It is concluded that foreign fighters have overwhelmingly damaged the Chechen and Syrian opposition movements, making the likelihood of opposition success more remote. ***1. Syria-Terrorism 2. Chechnya-Terrorism 3. Syria-Civil conflicts 4. Chechnya-Civil conflicts
Journal of Asian Studies 74(1), February, 2015: 5-21 ***1. Taiwan-Democracy 2. Taiwan-Sunflower movement Terrorism and Political Violence 27(1), January-March,2015: 81-111 This study examines the effects of a measure of country-level social disorganization on levels of terrorist attacks and fatalities in 101 countries from 1981 to 2010. We measure social disorganization as the presence of state instability: revolutionary and ethnic war, adverse regime change, and genocide. The classic social disorganization perspective posits that individuals experiencing these types of rapid social change will be freed from the institutional and informal restraints that bind them to society, and keep them conforming to social norms and laws. We examine the extent to which this reasoning applies to the number of terrorist attacks and fatalities from terrorist attacks occurring in countries. To control for the possibility that better functioning states are better able to prevent terrorist attacks, we include two measures of state capacity. We find that controlling for state capacity and a wide variety of other variables, social disorganization is consistently associated with increases in terrorist attacks and fatalities. We consider implications of the results for future research and policy. ***1. Terrorism 2. Breakdown theory Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(3), March,2015: 199-218 This article argues that counterterrorism effectiveness is a distinct, discursive construction that politicians use to offer a rationalization of measures adopted under conditions of inherent uncertainty. Even in the face of multiple limits of knowability, decision makers need to offer “rational” justifications complying with persisting expectations of “evidence-based” policy and sound deliberation in modern societies. This article develops a new perspective on the political role of counterterrorism effectiveness highlighting the symbolic importance of knowledge claims and prevailing standards of modern rationality. It illustrates its arguments through a case study on the justification of biometric passports as an effective counterterrorist tool. ***1. Terrorism 2. Counterterrorism Terrorism and Political Violence 27(1), January-March,2015: 29-52 Much of the discourse surrounding counterterrorism centers on the inevitability of displacement, or the substitution of another form of terrorist attack in place of the one that has been thwarted. Yet a longstanding tradition of research in situational crime prevention finds that displacement is far from inevitable, and often depends crucially on the specific features of the incidents in question. In fact, crime prevention efforts are often followed by a “diffusion of benefits” (i.e., crime reductions) to incidents, groups, or locations that were not the intended target of the intervention. The current study examines various forms of displacement and diffusion in response to airport metal detectors among terrorist groups that had been involved in the perpetration of aviation attacks prior to their implementation. Using data from the Global Terrorism Database, the findings from interrupted time series models suggest a complex set of displacement and diffusion effects with respect to alternative attack modes, target types, and weapon usage. ***1. Terrorism 2. Airport security 3. Homeland security Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(1), January,2015: 39-61 This article seeks to conceptualize global counterterror actor types by examining the designated terrorist organizations lists of six countries; the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Russia, and China. It is argued that these countries should be placed into one of three distinct categories: Trendsetters, Trend Followers, and Individual Players. Being able to classify countries according to these categories is important for global policymakers. It raises awareness of the differences between countries, and emphasizes that ?one-fits-all? policies are inappropriate and have little chance of achieving global endorsement. ***1. Terrorism 2. Terrorist organizations
Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs 59(1), Winter, 2015: 111-128 Recent cyber-attacks such as Stuxnet and Anonymous’ increasingly aggressive digital activism have rekindled fears that cyber-terrorism is an imminent threat. However, the concept remains poorly understood. Confusion over cyber-terrorism stems, in part, from recent attempts to stretch the concept to include hacktivism and terrorists’ use of the Internet to facilitate conventional terrorism. Although the United States and other countries have experienced thousands of cyberattacks in recent years, none have risen to the level of cyber-terrorism. This article seeks to dial down the rhetoric on cyber-terrorism by explaining how it differs from cyber-attacks, cyber-warfare, hacktivism, and terrorists’ use of the Internet. The most immediate online threat from non-state terrorists lies in their ability to exploit the Internet to raise funds, research targets, and recruit supporters rather than engage in cyber-terrorism. Cyber-terrorism may well occur in the future, but for now online crime, hacktivism, and cyber-warfare are more pressing virtual dangers. ***1. Terrorism 2. Cyber-Terrorism 3. SCADA systems
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(3), March,2015: 179-198 This article contests the affirmation—based on common sense—according to which terrorists simply need courage. The typical terrorist act can be considered part of the sociological category known as “vile violence” that is the act of striking out at a victim after having placed him or her in a desperate situation that does not allow for any escape. This article is based on primary and secondary sources, such as the analysis of thirty-five homicides committed in Italy by six terrorist units of the extreme left; interviews with extreme left terrorists; interviews with victims of extreme left terrorists; autobiographies of extreme left terrorists; autobiographies of victims of extreme left terrorists; video interviews of extreme left terrorists; and written statements of the investigating magistrates. ***1. Terrorism 2. Extreme left terrorism Terrorism and Political Violence 27(1), January-March,2015: 182-203 ***1. Terrorism 2. USA-Far-right extremists 3. Routine activities theory 44. Perry, Simon and Hasisi, Badi Terrorism and Political Violence 27(1), January-March,2015: 53-80 Suicide terrorism is the most violent and horrifying form of terrorism in the world today. This kind of terrorism causes many fatalities and can throw an entire nation into a state of panic. We usually attribute this kind of terrorism to altruistic motivation, assuming that bombers are willing to sacrifice themselves for a higher cause. The current study uses the criminological theory of Rational Choice to analyze the motivation of jihadist suicide terrorism. By reviewing the religious, personal, and social incentives, we demonstrate that even those who kill themselves in suicide attacks, which are seemingly examples of irrational or altruistic behavior, do so while considering future, self-gratifying benefits. Since this self-destructive behavior is mostly driven not by altruistic motivation but by the anticipation of costs and benefits, we find that there is no fundamental difference between the perpetrators’ motivations and those of other criminals; both groups are committed to maximizing self-gratifying, beneficial behavior. ***1. Terrorism 2. Suicide bomber 3. Rational choice theory
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(2), February,2015: 132-145 How does an established state authority respond to an insurgency? How does such an authority plan and carry out its struggle to counter an armed non-state actor and why? The issue of strategy in counterinsurgency (COIN) remains a rather contentious subject and several practitioners and theorists on COIN have prescribed various remedies to the same problem. This article offers a re-evaluation of the concept of strategy in COIN and outlines the practices and mentalities that counterinsurgents should adopt (and avoid) to successfully counter an insurgency. ***1. Terrorism 2. Counterinsurgency 3. Counterinsurgents Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(5), May 2015: 328-342 ***1. Terrorism 2. Syria-European foreign fighters Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(3), March,2015: 167-178 This article builds on recent contributions to the academic literature on lone wolf terrorism to critically examine key issues that are germane to the current state of play in this field of study. It finds that, overall, the recent academic literature still suffers from considerable problems regarding quality and rigor, including definitional, conceptual, methodological, and inference issues. By providing a critique of these issues, the article attempts to advance the scholarly debate on lone wolf terrorism and inspire greater dialogue and collaboration between scholars. Directions for future research are also outlined. ***1. Terrorism 2. Lone wolf terrorism World Politics 67(2), April 2015: 353-385 The strong support that African presidents retain among voters of their own ethnicity, despite clear evidence of shirking and corruption, has prompted numerous empirical investigations into whether an incumbent's ethnicity or performance is more important to African voters. The model of vote choice underlying almost all of these studies is additive and implies that either coethnicity or good performance can increase a candidate's vote share. However, there is little theoretical justification for such a model. In the dominant theory of ethnic voting in Africa, coethnicity is a signal of better outcomes, indicating that ethnicity and performance are not separate considerations. Using an experiment that is designed to determine how Ugandan voters make choices, the author shows that the effects of coethnicity and good performance interact: neither attribute increases support for a candidate in the absence of the other. Though previous analyses indicate that, all else being equal, voters always prefer coethnics, this study demonstrates that coethnics only have an advantage when they are not shirkers. Additionally, though previous studies indicate that voters always prefer good performers, this analysis shows that voters are indifferent to the performance of non-coethnic candidates. The article provides evidence that this pattern is in fact a result of voters' beliefs that they will only receive future goods from coethnics, making a demonstrated ability to provide such goods relevant for the electability of coethnic candidates, but not for non-coethnics. Since a large number of African voters do not share the ethnicity of their incumbent, this finding has troubling implications for accountability of African leaders. ***1. Uganda-Politics and government 2. Uganda-Election Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(2), February,2015: 146-166 ***1. USA-Campaign against international terrorism 2. USA-Lethal drone strikes International Relations 29(1), March,2015: 69-95 In this article, I argue that seemingly ‘un-noteworthy’ interactions between states can demonstrate the significance of language for social relationships and foreign policy partnerships. Using language game analysis, I apply Peter Howard’s four-stage model to the case of the US–Turkish Economic Partnership Commission’s proposal for qualified industrial zones shortly after 9/11 and examine how the expectations for enhancing partnership are shaped and at times dashed through the language used among a network of actors. A language game analysis provides an explanation for how actors’ expectations rise and fall and provides an understanding of the maintenance, enhancement, and dismantling of state relationships in a social and practice-centered context. I utilize author interview data as well as texts from newspapers, speeches, and organizations to show how partnership between allies is vulnerable to social expectations signaled in and through the common language they both hold. ***1. USA-Foreign policy 2. USA-Economic partnership-Turkey Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs 59(1), Winter 2015: 19-34 The history of great power conflicts waged by maritime/island powers clearly shows the criticality of supporting continental allies with a ground force commitment. Now is the time to establish a credible series of alliances in Europe and Asia—even though it is a moment of economic retrenchment and great power peace. These alliances need not be costly, but will provide deterrence in the near term and a hedge in the long run against future great power conflict—conflicts that will be waged not just in the air, on the seas, and in cyberspace, but on land as well. ***1. USA-Foreign policy-Asia 2. USA-Defense policy-Asia 3. The Peloponnesian War 4. The Napoleonic Wars Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(1), January,2015: 23-38 The U.S. war on Al Qaeda is well into its second decade?why has this particular conflict been so difficult to end? This article argues it is not due to the strategic acumen of Al Qaeda, but because of the problems intrinsic to relying on war as the framework for U.S. counterterrorism policy. The normal means of ending wars are complicated with a terrorist enemy and at odds with strategies that have historically had success at the end stages of counterterror campaigns. Continuing along the current path risks an ongoing war the United States will likely neither win nor fully end. ***1. USA-Strategy against al qaeda 2. USA-Counterterrorism policy Terrorism and Political Violence 27(1), January-March,2015: 133-159 Despite several overlaps between crime and terrorism, criminological examinations of terrorism to date have been limited. To fill this gap in the research, we examine several individual and contextual socio-demographic characteristics of a diverse sample of extremists operating in the United States who have committed violent crimes. In addition, we provide a comparative analysis to explain and understand differences between extremists who have committed violent crimes while active in either far-Right, far-Left (including environmental and animal rights extremists), or Al Qaeda and affiliated movements. To assess the impact of external factors on the nature of domestic extremist violence, we also comparatively examine these three types of domestic extremists before and after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. We find several similarities across domestic extremists but many important suspect- and county-level differences as well. We end the paper with suggestions for future research that could extend the criminological study of terrorism. ***1. USA-Terrorism 2. USA-Al Qaeda Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(5), May 2015: 311-327 On 4 February 2014, Al Qaeda leaders in Pakistan (aka Al Qaeda Central) repudiated Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq. Ayman al-Zawahiri declared that al-Baghdadi and his newly formed Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were no longer part of Al Qaeda's organization and Al Qaeda Central could not be held responsible for ISIL's behavior. It represents the first time that Al Qaeda Central has renounced an affiliate publicly. The announcement was driven by months of fighting between ISIL and Jabhat al-Nusra, another Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria. In fact, in Syria, Al Qaeda fighters are competing against each other for influence, as well as against other opposition groups, the Syrian regime, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iraqi militiamen, and Lebanese Hezbollah. This chaotic, semi-proxy war is unlike any previous problem encountered, made even more challenging by the limited U.S. presence on-the-ground. More worrisome, this semi-proxy war also has spread beyond Syria. Similar dynamics have emerged in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon to a certain extent. This article argues that these dynamics necessitate a twist in U.S. counterterrorism strategy. ***1. USA-War against Terrorism 2. USA-Counter-terrorism staregy 3. Al Qaeda 4. Islamic state in Iraq
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