Foreign Affairs Documentation Bulletin, April 2016 |
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AUSTRALIA -POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT 1. Halligan, John and Reid, Richard The extension of dissent to committee reporting in the Australian parliament has been one product of a period of significant institutional change. Previously, the norm of consensuality had primarily produced unanimous committee reports; however, during the 1980s and 1990s dissenting reports became more common. This article demonstrates that the trend for dissent in committee reporting has continued and reached heightened levels in the Senate. In addition, the conditions of the hung parliament, 2010–2013, significantly increased the level of dissent in the committees of the House of Representatives. These developments have important implications for how parliament functions and how debate is conducted on issues of public policy. 2. Lausberg, A K The Parliament of Australia has been host to a rare phenomenon of ‘cross-party collaboration’ (CPC), in which politicians work together across party lines by co-sponsoring a bill or voting together in a conscience vote. CPC points to gaps in political parties' platforms, leading individual politicians to seek representation of issues outside party divisions. This article explores the phenomenon of CPC and outlines different ways it has been used by politicians. As will be demonstrated, CPC in the Australian context is relatively gendered as mainly women politicians have used it to advance socio-moral issues, suggesting an alternative style of representation. BURKINA FASO -GENETICALLY MODIFIED CROPS 3. Dowd-Uribe, Brian and Schnurr, Matthew A This briefing reviews the experiences of South African farmers with GM cotton, which has emerged as the crucial precedent highlighting the value of GM crops for poor farmers. It then turns to the case of Burkina Faso, which became the showcase for how GM crops can benefit smallholder African farmers. However, as shown here, Burkina Faso has begun a complete phase-out of GM cotton, citing the inferior lint quality of the GM cultivars as the reason for abandoning its cultivation. Burkina Faso's phase-out could stall or even end negotiations to adopt GM cotton in other Francophone African countries with similar concerns over cotton quality. More generally, Burkina Faso's reversal could undermine public trust in GM crops across … 4. Yao, Yuan and Han, Rongbin Urban heritage preservation is gaining momentum in China as massive urban renovation has put many historical sites under threat. A group of renowned scholars, experts and artists have played an important role in leading and coordinating the movement. How do these cultural elites promote urban heritage preservation? How do they mediate state–society interactions and navigate the authoritarian regime to achieve their goals? This article explores how cultural elites take advantage of their intermediary position between officialdom and citizenry by not only mobilizing urban residents and the media to counter-balance the state, but also balancing different levels and sectors of the party-state against each other. Such a ‘double balance’ approach maximizes their influence within both the state and society, pushing forward the otherwise non-prioritized goal of heritage preservation. Control No : 42771 -ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS 5. Wang, Xinhong This article analyzes the fairly recent phenomenon of citizens and organizations requesting disclosure of environmental information in China. Chinese citizens and organizations are invoking the new open government information regulations to push government agencies, particularly environmental protection agencies, to fulfill their legal obligation of information disclosure. By requesting that government agencies disclose environmental information, citizens and organizations have turned themselves into active agents pushing forward the implementation of the new regulations. The findings of this article suggest that a bottom-up legal mobilization in the field of environmental information disclosure, though still with a limited scope, has been happening and endeavoring to make social and political changes in China. Furthermore, this legal mobilization can be seen as an important part of emerging civil society activities in contemporary China. 6. Zhongab, Yang and Hwangb, Wonjae Street protests have become commonplace in China. Utilizing extensive survey data, this study attempts to shed light on the nature of environmental street protests in China. The key question to be answered in the article is: why, facing the same issue, do some people choose the option of participating in street protests while others do not? Multivariate analytical findings indicate that Chinese urban residents’ willingness to participate in street protests over a hypothetical pollution issue in China is significantly related to their attitudes toward institutions in China. What motivates people to participate in street protests has a lot to do with their trust and support of the political system in China and their perceived government transparency. In other words, these protests are not just what Lewis Coser calls ‘realistic conflicts’ which primarily involve specific issues and solutions. One implication from this study is that street protests in China may not be as benign and non-regime threatening as some scholars might think. -FINANCIAL CRISIS 7. Montasser, Ghassen El, Fry, John and Apergis, Nicholas In this article we apply novel right-tailed unit root (sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and generalized sup ADF) tests to the China–US exchange rate. The empirical results document that the recent financial crisis in 2008 may be preceded by early warning signs of exuberance. Using the SADF test, evidence of an explosive behavior in the nominal exchange is found from 2005 onwards. This period coincides with both financial reforms in China and early indications of an impending US crisis that both have been reported in the literature. Our findings suggest that such an explosive behavior may be attributable to differences in the relative prices of traded goods. Policy implications are also derived. -FOREIGN POLICY-JAPAN 8. Gries, Peter Hays, Steiger, Derek and Wang, Tao -FOREIGN POLICY-TAIWAN 9. Lin, Gang Beijing’s new strategies toward Taiwan are informed by neo-functionalism derived from European experiences, assuming that economic integration will eventually lead to political accommodation and integration. Despite the surprising Sunflower Movement and the fiasco of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in the 2014 local elections, Beijing will try its best to maintain the momentum of peaceful development of cross-Strait relations. Facing a brand new Taiwan that seems an oddity to the mainland, however, Beijing has adapted to ‘the new normal’ with a slower pace, refocusing on the economic and cultural issues. Whether or to what degree Beijing will change its asymmetric engagements with the two main parties on the island, however, is contingent upon whether the KMT and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) can reach a balance of power domestically and whether their policies toward the mainland converge rather than diverge. At any rate, Beijing is likely to pay more attention to ordinary people’s feelings about cross-Strait economic and cultural exchanges and consider quality of cross-Strait exchange as more important than quantity of activities. Control No : 42772 -FOREOGN POLICY-TAIWAN 10. Yu, Yi-Wen, Yu, Ko-Chia and Lin, Tse-Chun Via quantitative analysis and interviews, this article examines the credibility and sustainability of Beijing’s patronage policy towards Taiwanese business. The new finding is that the rise of economic nationalism and local protectionism in China is undermining and constraining Beijing’s patronage policy. Consequently, China’s rising economy does not deepen cross-Strait integration but rather crowds out Taiwanese business. Moreover, considering the growing influence of Chinese domestic constraints, this article attempts to provide a bilateral two-level game to grasp the new dynamics on cross-Strait relations under the new normal. Control No : 42774 -LOCAL CONFLICTS 11. Benney, Jonathan This article assesses stability maintenance (weiwen) as a means of conflict resolution in China. It argues that the resolution of local disputes in China, particularly outside cities, is now being influenced and facilitated by the discourse and practice of stability maintenance, rather than legal methods and traditional mediation processes. This conclusion adds to the existing academic views of stability maintenance, which have previously emphasized social control to the exclusion of almost all else, and suggests that stability maintenance-focused conflict resolution may have practical benefits to Chinese citizens, given the state’s withdrawal from legal conflict resolution methods and its ambiguous attitude towards mediation. Control No : 42775 12. Yan, Xiaojun Today, with social protests a daily phenomenon in China, the Party-state’s survival hinges upon its institutional capacity to prevent, monitor, process information on, and overcome real and potential challenges. Over the past decade, the Communist Party has consistently stressed the critical importance of ‘stability preservation’ (weiwen) as central to ensuring the longevity of the authoritarian regime. Drawing upon intensive interviews and archival research, this article looks into the stability-preservation system in W County in North China. By exploring the institutional configuration, work mechanisms, daily activities and operational principles of the stability-preservation apparatus in the county, the author seeks to gain insight into the PRC regime’s mythical operations of ‘system maintenance’ and the ways in which the Party-state exerts control over society. Control No : 42776 -NATIONAL SECURITY COMMISSION 13. Erickson, Andrew S and Liff, Adam P As China’s active assertion of its claim to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands has increasingly crowded the surrounding waters and airspace with military and paramilitary forces, the risk of a Sino–Japanese crisis has reached unprecedented heights. Neither side wants conflict, but the increased frequency and proximity at which vessels and aircraft encounter one another means that overall risk has grown proportionately. Were a miscalculation or even an unintended low-level incident to occur, de-escalation would hinge on each side’s respective internal crisis management capabilities and political leaders’ ability to communicate expeditiously. This article analyzes China’s side of the ledger. Specifically, it assesses the extent to which institutional reforms since the 2001 US–China EP-3 crisis have ameliorated longstanding weaknesses in China’s crisis management capabilities and its ability to communicate via hotlines with Japan. While significant issues and obstacles to further urgently needed improvements remain, with the establishment of a Central National Security Commission (CNSC) and other recent reforms, Beijing may finally be achieving modest improvements. Bilaterally, however, no Sino–Japanese crisis hotline exists to date. Control No : 42766 14. Hu, Weixing Control No : 42764 15. Ji, You The establishment of the National Security Commission (NSC) of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a major regrouping of the top CCP power structure, a ‘New Deal’ in Xi Jinping’s endeavor to revitalize China. In full operation it will reshape Beijing’s national security (NS) decision-making process concerning the formulation of national security strategies, crisis management at home and abroad, coordination of national security policies and actions by Party/army/state agencies and institutional links with its foreign national security counterparts. This article argues that the NSC will primarily address the Party’s internal security concerns, which is the key link to its efforts to strike a new balance between various security typologies. It analyses Beijing’s securitization guidance and practice and constructs its organizational structure and functions. Control No : 42765 -PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY 16. Gruss, Laura and Brink, Tobias Ten This article assesses debates on state recentralization and economic rebalancing through a study of the photovoltaic (PV) industry. Based on empirical data and interviews, the authors examine different means and incentives of state support in this sector. First, in the context of the rise of PV firms (2001–2008), local government acquired a dominant role in supporting the sector. Second, against the backdrop of an industry downturn (2009–2013), this article demonstrates an advancing role of the central state in the industry. The authors thereby develop a nuanced perspective on the notions of recentralization and sectoral rebalancing. On the one hand, the government indeed utilizes its power to facilitate a rebalancing of the industry towards the domestic market. On the other, both recentralization and rebalancing efforts remain limited. Control No : 42778 -POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT 17. Zhang, Nandiyang Control No : 42770 -STOCK MARKET 18. Li, Guoping and Zhou, Hong The paradox that the performance of China’s stock market has not matched the performance of China’s real economy has been puzzling. This article argues that one of the major causes of the poor performance of China’s stock markets is that ever since their establishment, China’s stock markets have been systematically politicized by the ruling party to promote its political agenda. The mantra of ‘socialism’ of the ruling party has turned the stock markets into a mere fund-raising vehicle largely for failing state-owned enterprises, with investors’ interests being only a secondary consideration. The regulation of stock markets is subject to the principle of maintaining one-party ruling. Such a systematic politicization of stock markets has caused some serious consequences for China’s stock markets and economic growth. Control No : 42777 EGYPT -MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD 19. Ranko, Annette and Nedza, Justyna An important strand in the literature has stressed the analytical distinction between the Muslim Brotherhood's brand of Islamism and the Salafist movement. This article examines the shifts that have occurred within these two movements in Egypt since the Arab Spring. It specifically asks whether approximations between them in terms of strategies of actions have been paralleled by ideological approximations. The article argues that both movements have seen increased diversification which has—especially at the fringes—involved a reshaping of identities and ideological approximations that may facilitate cooperation between segments of these movements in the future. Control No : 42799 EUROPE -POLITICAL RESILIENCE 20. Argomaniz, Javier and Lehr, Peter In this article, we examine how European authorities have responded to reported threats to aviation resulting from individual terrorist tactics. We do so by applying the notion of political resilience and drawing on Palonen's “policy, polity, politicking, and politicization” model as well as on Malcolm Anderson's concept of “politics of the latest outrage.” We argue that the European Union response to aviation terrorism has created polity transformation and generated a long list of new policies but has also in the process become politicized and subject of politicking, with some high-profile measures being criticized for having a deleterious impact on passengers' rights. Control No : 42794 21. Edwardsa, Phil This article argues that systemic resilience in the face of terrorism is best conceptualized as a response to disruption of the political sphere, brought about by the forceful incursion of a would-be political actor. The ideological negotiation required to deal with political disruption is related to the “cycle of contention” model: engagement may take inclusive or exclusive forms, with consequences for the openness and hence the future resilience of the system. When the arguments used to support the British government's “Prevent” counterradicalization initiative are analyzed in these terms, the engagement is shown to be emphatically exclusive. Control No : 42790 22. Heath-Kelly, Charlotte Control No : 42791 23. Sinkkonen, Teemu This article compares the public communication of Norwegian Prime Minister Stoltenberg after the attacks of 22 July 2011 and Spanish Prime Minister Aznar after the Madrid train bombing on 11 March 2004. These two political leaders opted for very different styles of crisis communication in the direct aftermath of the attacks. There is also a great difference in how the attacks influenced their political support. By focusing on these two cases, the article asks whether political leaders can make a difference when it comes to the public response to terrorist attacks. Control No : 42792 -TERRORISM 24. Malkki, Leena and Sinkkonen, Teemu Control No : 42789 FINLAND -COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY 25. Malkki, Leena The major terrorist attacks in Western countries during the last fifteen years have had consequences way beyond the countries in which they have happened. The article provides a primary source–based account of the development of counterterrorism policy in Finland, which is one of those countries with a low national threat level. The article demonstrates the significant role that international pressure, through obligations, recommendations, and social learning, plays in developing national counterterrorist policies. The article calls also into question whether the pressure to comply with international pressure always contributes toward sound national counterterrorism policies that foster political resilience to terrorism. Control No : 42793 GERMANY -INTELLIGENCE SERVICES 26. Dietrich, Jan-Hendrik Control No : 42813 -POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT 27. Eder, Christina, Fortin-Rittberger, Jessica and Kroeber, Corinna Women's representation in elected assemblies across varying levels of government is often theorised to be shaped as a pyramid, with the highest proportion of women at the local level, where barriers to entry are minimal. Mapping women's representation in Germany, however, we find contradictory evidence, since the pyramid is spun on its head. Looking at the representation of women in legislatures across three levels of government reveals relatively few women in district assemblies, but sizably higher proportions at the Land and federal levels. This pattern presents a challenge to conventional explanations of descriptive representation at the local level. Control No : 42788
-EDUCATION SECTOR 28. Abdulai, Abdul-Gafaru and Hickey, Sam Control No : 42781 INDIA -ENERGY DIPLOMACY-CENTRAL ASIA 29. Stobdan, P India was always aware of the enormous energy reserves within its geographically proximate Central Asian region that could potentially fulfil its energy demands. The recent visit by Prime Minister Modi to the region has proved critical in paving the way for India to finally acquire a long awaited energy stake in the region. The new developments could not have been possible without the evolving undercurrents of the new geopolitical balance of power in the region. Russia seems to be playing a conspicuous role in nudging both India and Pakistan towards cooperation in the energy pipeline. However, there is no case to be euphoric on this front. India’s energy diplomacy in Central Asia will fail if it continues to discount the Russia factor in its policy. Control No : 42815 -FOREIGN RELATIONS-CHINA 30. Chand, Bibek and Danner, Lukas K China has always been an important neighbour to Nepal which has otherwise historically been heavily influenced by India. The ‘rise of China’ has created a more outward-looking Middle Kingdom and so its influence in Nepal has significantly increased within the last decade. As a consequence, Nepal is experiencing growing interest from China. This article aims to give some historical background to Sino-Nepalese relations and to measure the most recent impact of the ‘rise of China’ on Nepal, particularly on its economic, military and political fronts. This is followed by a broader look at China’s policy towards Nepal, also taking into account China’s overall strategy towards South Asia. Apart from China’s relationship with India, the issues of stability in Tibet as well as Tibetan refugees within Nepal remain important factors for the Sino-Nepalese relationship even to this day. Control No : 42816 -HUMAN SECURITY 31. Pillay, D P K This article explores the concept of human security and examines the scope for its adoption as a normative and policy framework in India. Human security prioritises non-military methods as a means of achieving security without compromising the priorities accorded to traditional security threats. It requires the fulfilment of people’s basic needs and rights. The objective of the article is to show that the human security approach can be usefully applied as a policy measure in India to reinforce successes in the social and economic spheres so that the possibility of dissatisfaction turning into violent opposition and internal conflict is minimised. Control No : 42817 -INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES 32. Khan, Shahnaz Khalil Control No : 42811 33. Kreutzmann, Hermann Boundary-making in the Karakoram–Himalayan borderlands has found a diverse set of actors and expressions over time. Legacies from colonial borders are part of contemporary disputes about affiliation, participation, and space. Three aspects are addressed in this paper: first, the debate about ‘natural’ and ‘scientific’ boundaries for purposes of colonial territorial acquisition; second, postcolonial debates in the recent renaming game in Gilgit-Baltistan and its implications; and third, the attitudes of actors in exile and geopolitical players claiming to represent the aspirations of the inhabitants of Gilgit-Baltistan. The three perspectives reveal opportunities and constraints in border regimes that reflect power structures, internal and external modes of interference, and participation. Control No : 42808 34. Loureiro, Miguel Many inhabitants of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) hold the belief that their society is not only more egalitarian today than that of their forefathers', but also more egalitarian than that in Pakistan. According to them, Pakistani society continues to be highly hierarchical with stark class and caste-like boundaries, while in AJK these boundaries have become weaker and merely symbolic since the 1970s due to changes in four interconnected factors; namely, migration patterns, land ownership, access to education, and democratic politics. This created an unprecedented level of social mobility among and within biradaris, the caste-like kinship corporate entities that are the crucial social boundary in this region. Yet, the main factor dictating membership in the biradari – endogamy – did not change, and access to power and resources is still determined mostly through biradari-ism. In this paper, I examine how notions of hierarchy and social stratification evolved over time and what contributed to this evolution. I argue and conclude that AJK society is still hierarchical but it has gained an element of fluidity. Control No : 42810
With reference to anthropological approaches to state borders as processes, this paper examines ‘the border’ between Pakistan and Azad Kashmir through the window of reconstruction politics after the 2005 earthquake in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Azad Kashmir. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork, I analyse how ‘the border’ became inscribed into politics and power relations in Muzaffarabad through a locally contested ‘reconstruction bureaucracy’ which provided Pakistan with the means to dominate reconstruction in Azad Kashmir. Activists from Muzaffarabad politicised the delay of reconstruction by addressing Pakistan's interference in Azad Kashmir's affairs. Local politicisation of reconstruction, however, revealed contradictory effects of ‘the border’ on power relations in Muzaffarabad. From the activists’ perspectives, political boundaries between Pakistan and Azad Kashmir were characterised by domination as well as cooperation that undermined local concerns such as the reconstruction of Muzaffarabad. Thus, local activists also opposed ‘their’ government and transgressed ‘the border’ into Pakistan through the creation of alliances with national actors in order to put pressure on the government of Azad Kashmir. In taking advantage of power disparities between Pakistan and Azad Kashmir, these alliances, however, not only reproduced but also undermined the nation state's domination over the region by manipulating and circumventing the ‘reconstruction bureaucracy’. Control No : 42809 36. Zutshi, Chitralekha This article begins the process of conceptualizing the drawing of multiple borders across Kashmir in the postcolonial period from the perspective of partition. It reviews the literature on partition and borders to argue that vivisection and its politics has played a significant role in defining the nature of the ongoing crisis in the region. The making and traversal of divisions – territorial, material, and ideological – lies at the heart of making sense of the Kashmir issue and offers possibilities for its resolution. Control No : 42807 IRAQ -TERRORISM 37. Christensen, Maya Mynster In the aftermath of the Sierra Leone civil war, demobilized militia soldiers have become an attractive resource to private security companies. Based on extensive ethnographic fieldwork, this article traces the outsourcing of security at American military bases in Iraq to Sierra Leonean ex-militias, facilitated by a British security company and the Sierra Leone government. In doing so, the article contributes to the ongoing scholarly debate on the privatization of security by offering a “local” ethnographically informed perspective on the micro-dynamics of “global” security. It is argued that the supply of global security depends on a form of local immobility: on a population that is “stuck”, yet constantly on the move to seize opportunities for survival and recognition. Structured by a chronological account of the recruitment, deployment, and deportation of Sierra Leonean ex-militias, the article discusses how these former militia soldiers experience being reduced to mere bodies rather than recognized labourers. It concludes that notions of race and slavery are employed by the ex-militias to make sense of their predicaments, but most notably as a moral response to the unequal relationships in which they find themselves embedded, in the context of security outsourcing in a global economy. Control No : 42780
38. Schulzke, Marcus There is tension between three of the U.S. counterinsurgency doctrine's central goals: the restoration of security, democratization, and cultural respect. These goals are particularly difficult to reconcile when it comes to the treatment of women and children in contested areas. Those groups have unique security concerns that are margin-alized in the U.S. military's conceptions of security and they may be victims of violence that is tacitly permitted by efforts to show cultural respect. After discussing these problems as they appear in U.S. counterinsurgency doctrine the author shows how they shape events in real operations with the help of interviews conducted with veterans of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Control No : 42796
JAMAICA -POLITICAL VIOLENCE 39. Edmonds, Kevin While traditional political rivalry in Jamaica can be traced back to pre-independence times, modern-day Jamaican politics have been overshadowed by Kingston’s influential ‘garrison communities’. In order to establish and maintain political dominance in key constituencies, the loyalty of impoverished but highly influential gangsters in Kingston’s ghettos was secured by the main political parties through the development of large scale, highly politicised and heavily armed public housing schemes – essentially operating as states within a state. This article examines the roots of Jamaica’s current crime epidemic, revealing that it is not just a story of drugs, gangs and guns, but has deeper connections to the CIA, the Cold War, and the efforts to marginalise the 1970s democratic socialist government of Michael Manley and his People’s National Party. Manley’s convincing electoral victory in 1972 deeply troubled the United States, as his open commitment to democratic socialism, implementing moderately progressive policies like the minimum wage and free education, and his close friendship with Fidel Castro placed Jamaica firmly in the crosshairs for American covert operations. Control No : 42821 KENYA -INDIVIDUAL AUTONOMY 40. McClendon, Gwyneth H and Riedl, Rachel Beatty Control No : 42784 MALAWI -LAND RECLAMATION MOVEMENTS 41. Chinigo, Davide -SECURITY INTELLIGENCE 42. Arditti, Roger Security Intelligence Middle East (SIME) remains an understudied aspect of British intelligence. In many respects it was a remarkable organization. Its wartime iteration was created in haste, ostensibly as a military body but based upon the Security Service's office in Cairo. It evolved into a truly ‘joint’ unit but culturally was closer to the Security Service (MI5) than either the military or the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6). SIME changed dramatically as a result of the end of the Second World War: it became the sole responsibility of MI5; local cooperation between MI5 and MI6 was scaled-down and became the focal point of a broader inter-intelligence service dispute in London; and new nationalist threats caught SIME off-balance and eventually undermined its raison d'être. SIME's contrasting wartime and peacetime iterations provide a useful example of how intelligence agencies respond to external pressures. It also provides a window into wider jurisdictional and constitutional conflicts at the heart of the relationship between MI5 and MI6, both during and after the war. Finally SIME shows practitioners what can be achieved under the right stimulus and what can be lost when that stimulus fades. Control No : 42812 MYANMAR -DRUG TRAFFICKING 43. Jonsson, Michael, Brennan, Elliot and O'Hara, Christopher Rebel involvement in drug trafficking is broadly found to prolong and intensify civil wars. Being an illicit good with strong demand, high profit margins, limited barriers to entry, and few interdiction opportunities, narcotic drugs disproportionately benefit rebel groups as a source of funding in civil wars. Furthermore, drug trafficking is believed to prolong civil wars by creating war economies that benefit rebel groups, making them reluctant to engage in peace negotiations. However, recent peace agreements suggest that drug trafficking can in some cases be used to “buy off” rebel leaders, whereas other insurgents willingly relinquish this source of funding. This article compares attempts at conflict resolution in Colombia and Myanmar, focusing on the impact drug trafficking by Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) and United Wa State Army has on contemporary peace negotiations. Control No : 42800 NORWAY -DEFENCE TRANSFORMATION 44. Kronvall, Olof and Petersson, Magnus In this article we analyse to what degree the three functions of doctrine proposed by Harald Hoiback – doctrine as a tool of operations, a tool of education, and a tool of change – have driven defence transformation in two Scandinavian states, Norway and Sweden. We conclude that doctrine, both allied and national, has had some impact on defence transformation in both countries: through the operations in Afghanistan, through education both at the branch level and joint level, and through organizational adaption to (first) the US ‘RMA paradigm’ and (later) to the subsequent ‘COIN paradigm’. However, other factors, such as threat perception and defence spending, have also played an important role. It also remains to be seen whether the changes are ephemeral or of a more permanent nature. SOUTH AFRICA -RHINO POACHING CRISIS 45. Buscher, Bram and Ramutsindela, Maano Over a thousand rhinos were killed in 2013 and 2014 as the poaching crisis in Southern Africa reached massive proportions, with major consequences for conservation and other political dynamics in the region. The article documents these dynamics in the context of the ongoing development and establishment of “peace parks”: large conservation areas that cross international state boundaries. The rhino-poaching crisis has affected peace parks in the region, especially the flagship Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park between South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. In order to save both peace parks and rhinos, key actors such as the South African government,the Peace Parks Foundation, and the general public responded to the poaching crisis with increasingly desperate measures, including the deployment of a variety of violent tactics and instruments. The article critically examines these methods of ‘green violence’ and places them within the broader historical and contemporary contexts of violence in the region and in the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park. It concludes that attempting to save peace parks through ‘green violence’ represents a contradiction, but that this contradiction is no longer recognized as such, given the historical positioning of peace parks in the region and popular discourses of placing poachers in a ‘space of exception’. Control No : 42779 SOVIET -SATELLITE IMAGERY INTELLIGENCE IN CUBA 46. Caddell, Joseph W In the autumn of 1962, two weeks before U-2 aerial photographs confirmed Soviet deployments of nuclear missiles in Cuba, the US intelligence community attempted to image the island with the spy satellite Corona. Insufficient image resolution and extensive cloud cover, however, prevented this photography from providing solid evidence confirming or denying the presence of offensive missiles. This event – previously unaddressed either by Missile Crisis or Corona scholars – illustrates both the promise and the limits of early satellite imagery intelligence. It further provides insight into the early imagery tasking and coordination process and demonstrates needs that drove further development of national satellite reconnaissance in the years that followed. Control No : 42814 TAIWAN -NATIONAL IDENTITY 47. Zhong, Yang Employing national identity theories and survey data in Taiwan, this article explains national identity shift in Taiwan. Descriptively we find that most Taiwanese people reject being called ‘Chinese’ (zhongguoren) when asked about their national identity. However, they do not deny their ethnic and cultural Chinese identity. What they object to is being called Chinese nationals, especially this China which is internationally recognized as the People’s Republic of China. In other words, most Taiwanese people do not identify themselves with the mainland Chinese state even though they still associate themselves with the Chinese nation. It is also noted that there is no consensus with regard to national identity in Taiwan, since close to one third of the population still do not object to be called zhongguoren. The author’s analytical findings further confirm that external sovereignty-related factors are related to the Taiwanese national identity shift. Specifically, a changed state boundary, separation desire from mainland China, and recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign state, not the distinctive cultural reconstruction inside Taiwan, contribute to the national identity shift in Taiwan. Control No : 42773 TANZANIA -INDUSTRIAL POLITICS 48. Languille, Sonia In 2014, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) government in Tanzania decided to discontinue the market-based system for textbook provision that was established in the early 1990s and revert to full state control. Drawing on the theory of political settlements and the literature on Tanzania's industrial politics, the article examines the political economy of textbook provision in this country in order to generate new insights into the relations between the educational, political, and economic spheres. It shows how donor ideology and practices, while subjecting textbooks to generic market principles, also promoted the interests of Western publishing corporations. It then argues that the distribution of power within the state, and the ambiguous relations between the CCM ruling elites, bureaucrats, and the capitalist class, prevented the consolidation of a textbook industrial policy geared towards supporting the local publishing industry. Finally, the article explores elites' diverse corrupt practices to capture public funding for textbooks at the national and local levels. Under Tanzania's country-specific political settlement, the textbook sector, far from primarily serving educational goals, has indeed been reduced to a vast site of primitive accumulation. Control No : 42782 TERRORISM 49. Becker, Michael Control No : 42798 50. Behlendorf, Brandon, Belur, Jyoti and Kumar, Sumit The nature of underreporting terrorism in developing countries is often acknowledged but poorly understood. Focusing on India, we triangulate terrorist attacks captured across three media-based datasets (Global Terrorism Database, South Asia Terrorism Portal, Worldwide Incident Terrorism System) against official police records from Andhra Pradesh. Results suggest that media-based datasets capture the geographic prevalence of terrorism yet severely underestimate the frequency of violence, biasing toward lethal bombings. Considerable variation is present for attacks targeting specific classes or types of actors. Similar to other crimes, the results suggest that existing terrorism databases represent a select version of violence in these countries, discounting the prevalence and regularity of non-lethal violent activity. Control No : 42802 51. Bie, Jasper L De and Poot, Christianne J De This article focuses on a challenge in the current terrorism literature, namely the methodological justification concerning the collection and analysis of empirical data. Lack of detailed methodological accounts of the collection and analysis of the data makes it difficult to evaluate presented findings, especially if these data are confidential or focused on specific aspects of the phenomenon. This article offers an extensive overview of the methodological procedures conducted in a large empirical research project on jihadist networks based on confidential police files (2000–2013), interviews, and trial observations. The article illustrates how grounded theory–based methods can be used to collect and analyze such data and to develop and test new theories in this research field. 52. Boyd, Katharine A Many prior studies have analyzed how country characteristics affect the rate of terrorist violence and there is a growing literature on how group traits influence terrorist violence. The current study expands on this literature by using multilevel modeling to assess both these units of analysis on the rate of domestic attacks and the rate of attacks against foreign targets. Using data from the Big Allied and Dangerous and the Global Terrorism Database, a cross-national sample of 224 terrorist groups are modeled in relation to their countries of origin to assess rates of domestic attacks. In this cross-sectional study many of these terrorist groups target multiple foreign countries. Multiple membership random effects modeling (MMREM) is used to assess the impact of multiple countries targeted by a group. The results of the study indicate that multilevel modeling provides an improved statistical fit and the MMREM model provides an improved measurement for analyzing attacks targeting foreign countries. Control No : 42805 53. Braddock, Kurt and Horgan, John Despite widespread recognition that the use of counternarratives is an important strategic component of countering violent extremism, to date, there are no comprehensive guidelines on how 54. Cohen, Shuki J This study proposes a novel methodology for the study of the mindset, motives, and cognitive style of individual suicide bombers in Israel/Palestine, based on a comprehensive corpus of personal farewell letters (which also serve as last wills) that were written by suicide bombers to their family during the Second Intifada (2000–2006). To avoid privileging certain a priori sentiments, motivations, or concepts over others, I used a programmatic “bottom-up” sequence of quantitative psycholinguistic procedures, in which prominent themes or concepts from one level of analysis are further qualified and contextualized in the next. This afforded a minimally biased view of the cognitive content of Palestinian suicide bombers, including the sentiments, motivations, and concepts that they were more preoccupied with, and the context in which these ideas were expressed. The results are largely consistent with theories of political violence that place pro-social sentiments at the forefront of the motivations for suicide terrorism, and paramount to antisocial sentiments such as hatred and revenge. Since the linguistic patterns that were uncovered in this analysis cannot be controlled consciously, and the farewell letters of suicide bombers have rarely been rigorously analyzed linguistically, this study may provide an unprecedented glimpse into the cognitive style and content of individual suicide bombers—a glimpse that is minimally biased by political, partisan, or sectarian preconceptions. 55. Kerodal, Ashmini G, Freilich, Joshua D and Chermak, Steven M This study article focuses on American far-right (FR) extremists who committed ideologically motivated violent or financial crimes in the United States. We examine three research questions. First, are certain types of FR ideological beliefs associated with different types of criminal behavior? Second, can the various indicators of FR ideology be used to create a scalar measure of commitment to FR ideology? Third, which typology of the FR movement provides the most reliable measure of FR extremism? We use data from the United States Extremist Crime Database to measure indicators of FR ideology in a sample of 305 FRs who committed a financial crime or homicide between 2006 and 2010 in the United States. Conspiratorial, antigovernment, and antitax beliefs were positively associated with risk of financial crimes, while xenophobic, survivalist, and anti–gun control beliefs were positively associated with risk of violent crimes. A factor analysis created a commitment to FR ideology scale and identified four sub-types of FRs: Conspiracy Theorist, Survivalist, Movement Participant, and Proud far-rightist. The factor analysis did not support the prevailing typologies. Importantly though, these typologies were useful in predicting criminal behavior patterns of far rightists. We outline a number of other measurement issues for future research to address. Control No : 42804 56. Parkin, William S and Green, David A This study identifies the most efficient methodology for sampling from a population of New York Times articles related to terrorism, which were generated through keyword searching. Efficiency was based on which sample statistic was closest to the population parameters of interest. The smallest sample size, where 68 percent of the sample statistics were within one standard deviation of the population mean and 95 percent of the sample statistics were within two standard deviations of the population mean, were identified as the most efficient. In addition, we determine whether the frequency of news articles is correlated to the temporal distribution of terrorist incidents found in the Global Terrorism Database, which could possibly be utilized to more efficiently sample from the population. Our findings confirm prior research that shows that sampling efficiency is related to the weekly news cycle and, contrary to prior research, the sample must include between 20 to 29 constructed weeks to achieve representativeness of an entire year of coverage for a population generated through keyword searches. In addition, the study also found that there was a limited relationship between the frequency of terrorist incidents and the amount of terrorism coverage in the news. USA -COUNTER TERRORISM COOPERATION-EUROPEAN UNION 57. Anagnostakis, Dimitrios This article offers an analysis of the cooperation between the European Union (EU) and the United States on customs security in the context of the two actors' fight against terrorism. While other aspects of EU–U.S. counterterrorism cooperation have received some scholarly attention, not so much research has focused on security cooperation in the EU–U.S. customs and supply chain. To investigate the emergence of transatlantic cooperation in this field this article employs regime theory in examining the 2004 EU–U.S. customs security agreement, the 2012 EU–U.S. mutual recognition decision, and the transatlantic disagreement on the U.S. 100 percent scanning rule. Control No : 42797 -WAR AGAINST TERRORISM-AFGHANISTAN 58. Jensen, Benjamin Continuing the focus on military doctrine in this special issue, this essay explores institutional mechanisms that enable otherwise rigid bureaucracies to innovate. Rather than focus on organizational and strategic culture, the piece explores the role of pragmatic officers using incubators and advocacy networks to escape their iron cage. The piece traces the institutional origins of the US counterinsurgency doctrine between 2003 and 2006 to highlight the role of special study groups and cross-cutting bureaucratic coalitions in creating a space to deliberate over how to fight the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Control No : 42818
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